Slow Erosion of Civil Rights in Venezuela

What to think of Hugo Chavez? Dangerous counter-revolutionary or harmless clown prone to overstated histrionics?

While the Bush administration has 'taken him seriously' over the last few years (about the the only thing they pay attention to in Latin America at the moment), my gut has always told me that even though he has managed to consolidate a enormous amount of power in Venezuela, he doesn't have the guts or the will to become a real dictator in the sense of Pinochet or Castro (i.e. he won't murder and torture to get what he wants). Again, this is just my gut feeling, and hopefully once oil prices stabilize, his bottomless pool of petro-cash dries up and his 'allies' realize he is full of shit, he will be seen as the buffoon he is.

That is what I used to think, but recent events have me thinking that his borderline dictatorial actions have now crossed over that proverbial line. The elections are less than a month away, and in the face of the toughest challenge yet to his presidency, Chavez has ramped up the intimidation and dirty play to new levels.

First is Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez recently threatening PDVSA employees with termination for opposing Chavez, which is clearly Chavez-approved political intimidation. To boot, this act was caught on videotape. Surprising? Not really, but what was shocking was that no one from Chavismo even tried to make an excuse for it. Like this behavior is now so pervasive among the Rojistas that they don't even try to downplay it.

Second, the Venezuelan Guardia Nacional has banned private television stations from having access to their microwave relay station in Caracas. The stations must submit a request 24 hours previous to the time of use. This effectively prevents Venezuelan private media (which is staunchly anti-Chavez) from broadcasting live events such as thousands and thousands of opposition supporters marching through Caracas. Again, this ban does not apply to government-controlled media, just private stations. Violation of free speech not to mention a gross abuse of government resources to influence an election campaign

Lastly, Chavez has 'recruited' workers at the Caracas Metro to essentially be spies looking for any sort of "sabotage" on the Metro in the weeks leading up to the 3 December elections. There are 5000 employees of the Metro. Are we assuming they all naturally support Chavez? Well, they do now I guess. Either that or lose their jobs.

Anyway, it seems that while Chavez' early tactics at erosion of democracy were more subtle (he very cleverly passed Constitution reforms that consolidated his own political power, using democratic referendums as the vehicle), he has now resorted to blatant bullying and intimidation, not even trying to make excuses for it.

Maybe he's dropped the whole 'democracy' guise altogether. Or maybe he's just scared that his opponent, Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales, is building a formidable support base. This may be the best shot to defeat Chavez since he took office in 1998. If Chavez wins, however, then look for further power consolidation. He will try and extend his mandate indefinitely, erasing term limits for the executive post.

Thus, his intimidation tactics should not be surprising. Just scary. And a bad omen for what Venezuela could be in store for the next 20-30 years if he manages to win on December 3.