Rare Victory for Opposition in Venezuela

While the opposition in Venezuela must be thrilled to have finally defeated Chavez in an election, the real effects of this victory are not immediately clear. With five years left on his current term, Chavez has more than enough time to do a lot of damage, and his por ahora comments following his concession speech seem ominous, indicating that the campaign to become dictator for life is far from over.

What I find funny (or sad perhaps) is how the pro-Chavez camp is trying to spin the referendum loss as some sort of proof that Chavismo is democratic after all. "Hey look! We lost an election so that means there is no way we could have ever rigged one in the past!". That logic is completely flawed, and it's ridiculous to ask everyone to pat you on the back for something that should be taken for granted: free, fair and unrigged elections. What is worrisome is that the passive observer of Venezuelan politics will do exactly that and take these results as de facto proof that Chavez is doing everything by the book and that he has amassed power through completely legitimate means. To be fair, I have no proof that he has rigged past elections, but there are plenty who believe that he has, most notably his dubious 60% of the electoral vote in the 2006 presidential elections.

For now, though, the opposition will savor its victory without really knowing what will come of it. It solves none of Venezuela's current problems such as food shortages, skyrocketing violent crime, steep inflation, crumbling infrastructure, etc. The opposition must rally itself and push even harder to foment change. Chavez may have five years left, but perhaps the people can start looking ahead just like they have in the U.S., where the presidential campaigns started ridiculously early in desperate anticipation of a change at the top.