Around the Hemisphere...and in Orbit

6 days left until the big day. After two years of constant media coverage and intense scrutiny of the candidates, the campaign has basically eaten up 25% of Bush's eight years. Not necessarily a bad thing, I suppose. Meanwhile, U.S.-Latin American relations are at a crossroads. Is enough attention being paid to goings-on here in our own backyard? Will the foreign policy focus shift away from Central Asia/the Middle East anytime soon? In any case, the show must go on:

• Maradona is the new coach of Argentina’s national team. The world is stunned, and not everyone in Argentina is happy about it.
  

• Rafael Correa with a touch of schadenfreude in regards to those who lost their shirts in the financial crisis

• The Ibero-American summit is being held in El Salvador. Chavez said he was skipping it, but apparently will go after all. No matter, the important thing is that Shakira will be there...
  

• Venezuela launches the Simon Bolivar satellite from southeastern China, which will be used for TeleSUR, other Venezuelan state-run media outlets as well as China’s CCTV. Official government line says this puts Venezuela “at the vanguard of telecommunications within Latin America.”
  

• Another hostage escapes in Colombia, this time after 8 years in activity. Meanwhile, the Post laments a long-fought and largely forgotten war.
  

• The UN steps up again to challenge the U.S. embargo on Cuba. Again, if Obama is President, will he lift it as he advocated in 2004? Or will he maintain it as "an important inducement for change" like he said in 2007?
  

• Daniel at VZ News and views curses the Venezuelan state takeover of CANTV (telecom company) as he laments his slow internet service. It could be worse dude; you could be forced to get Comcast like I am…

Photo: Mindefensa.gov.ve

Cracks in the Dam

Much of the world seemingly believes that Hugo Chavez is a dictator. While the technical definition of that word can be debated, his actions as of late certainly do nothing to prove otherwise. The most recent incident features Chavez more or less vowing to throw opposition leader Manuel Rosales in jail. Rosales ran for President against Chavez in the most recent elections in Venezuela, and although he lost, the race was closer than Chavez would have liked it. Chavez’s party is in danger of losing some key positions around the country, particularly in Zulia state in western Venezuela, the main stronghold of an otherwise weak and fragmented opposition. As Governor of Zulia, Rosales was a constant thorn in Hugo’s side. In the upcoming gubernatorial and mayoral elections, Rosales is running for mayor of Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city. Chavez announced he would be drawing up military plans in case Rosales wins the election.

Empty threats from Chavez are nothing new, but now it seems he has really taken off the gloves in regards to Rosales, stating, "I am determined to put Manuel Rosales behind bars. A swine like that has to be in prison.” He has accused Rosales of working with the CIA and plotting to overthrow and assassinate him (sound familiar?...it’s so oft repeated now it just seems humorous more than anything else).

On Monday, Rosales decided to hit back, announcing he would take Chavez to court for a litany of serious crimes, foremost being narco-trafficking, corruption, and terrorism. Wow. Does that cover all of it? What about treason, shoplifting, bootlegging moonshine, sodomy….? He’s no pushover apparently: ''If he [Chavez] doesn’t respect me and tries to sweep the floor with me, I won’t take it. Not from him or anyone else."

While all this may sound like lame political bitch-slapping back and forth, it probably reflects the growing uneasiness in the country that comes with plummeting oil prices. Much like McCain has been torpedoed by the financial crisis in the U.S., $60 barrels of oil spell political trouble for Chavez. Venezuela had massive problems when oil was at $140/barrel, including widespread food shortages, terrible inflation, increased kidnappings and street violence… Although a large percentage of the country lives in poverty, they probably understand the fundamental problem of low oil prices in a petrostate and what that means for their immediate future. That said, the November 23 elections will probably reflect that reality, and Chavez lashing out means he sees the writing on the wall.

Around the Hemisphere - Thursday Edition

The U.S. elections swiftly approach, and Latin America has virtually fallen off the political radar in this country. Not to blame the candidates for that; pretty much all foreign policy issues, even Iraq, are taking a backseat to the economy these days. Still events in Latin America roll on, and we can't stop paying attention:

• Russia offers to help Bolivia…fight narco-trafficking? Seems like an odd combination to me, but then again Russia has been rather active in the region of late, perhaps looking to further expand its influence in the hemisphere.
  

• McCain is losing ground among U.S. Hispanics. Another area where his campaign is failing to adapt to realities on the ground…
  

• Condaleeza Rice is in Mexico to address increasing drug violence. Hope she has better luck there than she did in the Middle East.
  

• The Pemex vote is imminent in Mexico’s legislature. The debate is whether parts of the state-run oil company should be privatized, and how much autonomy the company will have in decision making.
  

• Fujimori’s “Megatrial” in Peru suspended as the former president falls ill and is taken to the hospital. Looks like he’s screwed anyway.
  

• Ties between Cuba and the European Union were formally restored after five years of limited relations. This includes a $30 million humanitarian aid package for hurricane relief. The question now: Will Obama finally make the bold move of lifting the embargo?

Foto: Latuff

Palin Speaks Spanish? (Maybe She Should Master English First...)

If John McCain wants an even semi-respectable result in this election, he has to put Sarah Palin away completely. Letting her speak in even a semi-controlled environment is almost a guaranteed embarrassment, although most have probably come to expect it by now. Today, she gave her first interview to a Hispanic media outlet, Univisión, and “answered” questions about her “views” on foreign policy as it relates to Latin America. The highlights:

• Repeatedly referred to Chavez as a dictator, and said sanctions against Venezuela were appropriate. Although she didn’t endorse military action, she gave the tried and true “no options off the table” canned response.
  

• Predictably used the topic of oil to transition into how great drilling is, blah, blah, blah. Again accused Chavez of using “oil as a weapon” and stressed the need for energy independence.
  

• Supported building an immigration wall, rejected allowing illegal immigrants driver’s licenses.

First, while I have no problem calling Chavez a dictator, when she says it, she clearly doesn’t understand the meaning. Does she assume dictator means “bad, evil leader”? Chavez was elected...numerous times at that (we can all debate the validity of those wins, yes). He also lost a referendum, which a dictator certainly would not have allowed. I prefer the term quasi-dictator instead. That covers most bases and allows one to not look stupid.

Secondly, saying Chavez uses oil as a weapon is a cop out. He can no more stop selling us oil than we can stop buying it. He may threaten cutting off our supply at times, but never has a threat been emptier than that one. True energy independence will mean getting off oil completely, not digging up the remaining pristine nature reserves we have or polluting our oceans to try and squeeze the last few drops from our own reserves.

Finally, building a border wall? Please, that’s so 2006. Besides, I think we’ve solved the whole illegal immigration problem anyway…it’s called having a shitty economy.

So, “Governor” Palin fails the foreign policy test…again. I wish they would have asked her about the proposed reforms at Pemex or what she thought about the constitutional referendum in Ecuador. What are the odds she could even locate Ecuador on a map?

Photo: Bruteprop.com

Around the Hemisphere

• Mexico and Cuba reach immigration deal to “avoid Mexican territory being utilized by the mafia as a route for trafficking Cubans.” In other words, no more easy defections.
  

• Massive academic effort results in a 1200 page encyclopedia of the Spanish language. “…from the beginnings of the language in the 16th century to more modern manifestations of teenage slang on the Internet…to the ‘Spanglish’ phenomenon…” Sounds interesting…and no doubt expensive!
  

• In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega targets investigative journalist Carlos Fernando Chamorro, son of Violet Chamorro, who defeated Ortega in elections in 1990. Some say it’s a move towards repression of dissident voices and a slow shift to a totalitarian regime. The Post wonders why the U.S. government hasn’t paid closer attention…
  

• Argentina’s government seizes private pension funds to help pay off debt. It always sounds so ominous when another country’s government intercedes in the free market, doesn’t it?
  

• Brazil’s Central Bank to the rescue again, this time to help exporters.
  

• The Excrement has an analysis of how falling oil prices may impact the Venezuelan economy. I was actually wondering about this myself. How does a megalomaniac maintain his profligate spending ways when oil drops from $140 to $70/barrel in a matter of months?
  

• Modern-day slavery in Brazil? Low, low wage workers find themselves trapped by financial hardship.