Around the Hemisphere...and in Orbit

6 days left until the big day. After two years of constant media coverage and intense scrutiny of the candidates, the campaign has basically eaten up 25% of Bush's eight years. Not necessarily a bad thing, I suppose. Meanwhile, U.S.-Latin American relations are at a crossroads. Is enough attention being paid to goings-on here in our own backyard? Will the foreign policy focus shift away from Central Asia/the Middle East anytime soon? In any case, the show must go on:

• Maradona is the new coach of Argentina’s national team. The world is stunned, and not everyone in Argentina is happy about it.
  

• Rafael Correa with a touch of schadenfreude in regards to those who lost their shirts in the financial crisis

• The Ibero-American summit is being held in El Salvador. Chavez said he was skipping it, but apparently will go after all. No matter, the important thing is that Shakira will be there...
  

• Venezuela launches the Simon Bolivar satellite from southeastern China, which will be used for TeleSUR, other Venezuelan state-run media outlets as well as China’s CCTV. Official government line says this puts Venezuela “at the vanguard of telecommunications within Latin America.”
  

• Another hostage escapes in Colombia, this time after 8 years in activity. Meanwhile, the Post laments a long-fought and largely forgotten war.
  

• The UN steps up again to challenge the U.S. embargo on Cuba. Again, if Obama is President, will he lift it as he advocated in 2004? Or will he maintain it as "an important inducement for change" like he said in 2007?
  

• Daniel at VZ News and views curses the Venezuelan state takeover of CANTV (telecom company) as he laments his slow internet service. It could be worse dude; you could be forced to get Comcast like I am…

Photo: Mindefensa.gov.ve

Cracks in the Dam

Much of the world seemingly believes that Hugo Chavez is a dictator. While the technical definition of that word can be debated, his actions as of late certainly do nothing to prove otherwise. The most recent incident features Chavez more or less vowing to throw opposition leader Manuel Rosales in jail. Rosales ran for President against Chavez in the most recent elections in Venezuela, and although he lost, the race was closer than Chavez would have liked it. Chavez’s party is in danger of losing some key positions around the country, particularly in Zulia state in western Venezuela, the main stronghold of an otherwise weak and fragmented opposition. As Governor of Zulia, Rosales was a constant thorn in Hugo’s side. In the upcoming gubernatorial and mayoral elections, Rosales is running for mayor of Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city. Chavez announced he would be drawing up military plans in case Rosales wins the election.

Empty threats from Chavez are nothing new, but now it seems he has really taken off the gloves in regards to Rosales, stating, "I am determined to put Manuel Rosales behind bars. A swine like that has to be in prison.” He has accused Rosales of working with the CIA and plotting to overthrow and assassinate him (sound familiar?...it’s so oft repeated now it just seems humorous more than anything else).

On Monday, Rosales decided to hit back, announcing he would take Chavez to court for a litany of serious crimes, foremost being narco-trafficking, corruption, and terrorism. Wow. Does that cover all of it? What about treason, shoplifting, bootlegging moonshine, sodomy….? He’s no pushover apparently: ''If he [Chavez] doesn’t respect me and tries to sweep the floor with me, I won’t take it. Not from him or anyone else."

While all this may sound like lame political bitch-slapping back and forth, it probably reflects the growing uneasiness in the country that comes with plummeting oil prices. Much like McCain has been torpedoed by the financial crisis in the U.S., $60 barrels of oil spell political trouble for Chavez. Venezuela had massive problems when oil was at $140/barrel, including widespread food shortages, terrible inflation, increased kidnappings and street violence… Although a large percentage of the country lives in poverty, they probably understand the fundamental problem of low oil prices in a petrostate and what that means for their immediate future. That said, the November 23 elections will probably reflect that reality, and Chavez lashing out means he sees the writing on the wall.

Around the Hemisphere - Thursday Edition

The U.S. elections swiftly approach, and Latin America has virtually fallen off the political radar in this country. Not to blame the candidates for that; pretty much all foreign policy issues, even Iraq, are taking a backseat to the economy these days. Still events in Latin America roll on, and we can't stop paying attention:

• Russia offers to help Bolivia…fight narco-trafficking? Seems like an odd combination to me, but then again Russia has been rather active in the region of late, perhaps looking to further expand its influence in the hemisphere.
  

• McCain is losing ground among U.S. Hispanics. Another area where his campaign is failing to adapt to realities on the ground…
  

• Condaleeza Rice is in Mexico to address increasing drug violence. Hope she has better luck there than she did in the Middle East.
  

• The Pemex vote is imminent in Mexico’s legislature. The debate is whether parts of the state-run oil company should be privatized, and how much autonomy the company will have in decision making.
  

• Fujimori’s “Megatrial” in Peru suspended as the former president falls ill and is taken to the hospital. Looks like he’s screwed anyway.
  

• Ties between Cuba and the European Union were formally restored after five years of limited relations. This includes a $30 million humanitarian aid package for hurricane relief. The question now: Will Obama finally make the bold move of lifting the embargo?

Foto: Latuff

Palin Speaks Spanish? (Maybe She Should Master English First...)

If John McCain wants an even semi-respectable result in this election, he has to put Sarah Palin away completely. Letting her speak in even a semi-controlled environment is almost a guaranteed embarrassment, although most have probably come to expect it by now. Today, she gave her first interview to a Hispanic media outlet, Univisión, and “answered” questions about her “views” on foreign policy as it relates to Latin America. The highlights:

• Repeatedly referred to Chavez as a dictator, and said sanctions against Venezuela were appropriate. Although she didn’t endorse military action, she gave the tried and true “no options off the table” canned response.
  

• Predictably used the topic of oil to transition into how great drilling is, blah, blah, blah. Again accused Chavez of using “oil as a weapon” and stressed the need for energy independence.
  

• Supported building an immigration wall, rejected allowing illegal immigrants driver’s licenses.

First, while I have no problem calling Chavez a dictator, when she says it, she clearly doesn’t understand the meaning. Does she assume dictator means “bad, evil leader”? Chavez was elected...numerous times at that (we can all debate the validity of those wins, yes). He also lost a referendum, which a dictator certainly would not have allowed. I prefer the term quasi-dictator instead. That covers most bases and allows one to not look stupid.

Secondly, saying Chavez uses oil as a weapon is a cop out. He can no more stop selling us oil than we can stop buying it. He may threaten cutting off our supply at times, but never has a threat been emptier than that one. True energy independence will mean getting off oil completely, not digging up the remaining pristine nature reserves we have or polluting our oceans to try and squeeze the last few drops from our own reserves.

Finally, building a border wall? Please, that’s so 2006. Besides, I think we’ve solved the whole illegal immigration problem anyway…it’s called having a shitty economy.

So, “Governor” Palin fails the foreign policy test…again. I wish they would have asked her about the proposed reforms at Pemex or what she thought about the constitutional referendum in Ecuador. What are the odds she could even locate Ecuador on a map?

Photo: Bruteprop.com

Around the Hemisphere

• Mexico and Cuba reach immigration deal to “avoid Mexican territory being utilized by the mafia as a route for trafficking Cubans.” In other words, no more easy defections.
  

• Massive academic effort results in a 1200 page encyclopedia of the Spanish language. “…from the beginnings of the language in the 16th century to more modern manifestations of teenage slang on the Internet…to the ‘Spanglish’ phenomenon…” Sounds interesting…and no doubt expensive!
  

• In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega targets investigative journalist Carlos Fernando Chamorro, son of Violet Chamorro, who defeated Ortega in elections in 1990. Some say it’s a move towards repression of dissident voices and a slow shift to a totalitarian regime. The Post wonders why the U.S. government hasn’t paid closer attention…
  

• Argentina’s government seizes private pension funds to help pay off debt. It always sounds so ominous when another country’s government intercedes in the free market, doesn’t it?
  

• Brazil’s Central Bank to the rescue again, this time to help exporters.
  

• The Excrement has an analysis of how falling oil prices may impact the Venezuelan economy. I was actually wondering about this myself. How does a megalomaniac maintain his profligate spending ways when oil drops from $140 to $70/barrel in a matter of months?
  

• Modern-day slavery in Brazil? Low, low wage workers find themselves trapped by financial hardship.

Chavez the Celebrity Magnet

A few years ago, Hugo Chavez started to receive visits from a small group of celebrities. I don’t remember the exact order in which they all visited, but off the top of my head I believe the group included Danny Glover, Kevin Spacey, Harry Belafonte, and Naomi Campbell. All three of the actors on the list are known for their ultra-liberal political stances, not to mention keen detest for the Bush administration. In a 2006 visit to Venezuela, Belafonte labeled Bush as “the greatest terrorist in the world.” These words garnered him plenty of criticism, and even had the fairly liberal John Edwards declining Belafonte’s political endorsement for President.

As for Campbell, I’m not sure what her political leanings are, or even if she has any at all. In her case, rumors swirled that she was actually dating Chavez, maybe seeing herself as a proletariat Carla Bruni or something like that. For Glover, it turns out his “friendship” with Chavez would be lucrative; he received around $20 million from the deep-pocketed one to fund a biopic movie about Haitian revolutionary Touissant Loverture. None of these celebrity jaunts with Hugo particularly bothered me at the time. Sure, I liked the Lethal Weapon movies and who doesn’t love “The Banana Boat” song?

Wacky, lefty politics from people too rich to care about what anyone thinks... But, this whole deal with Chavez and Sean Penn is more bothersome to me. First of all, I like Penn as an actor quite a bit. Not to conflate one’s onscreen achievements or personality with real-life actions, but he has a certain presence, a certain legitimacy that makes him stand out as an actor. Secondly, I thought what he did during Katrina was ballsy as hell. He caught a lot of flak for renting a boat and trying to pull people out of flooded areas, but at the time it was a hell of a lot more than what FEMA was doing.

So, the fact that he has allowed Chavez to parade him around the country not once but twice is troubling to me. Last year on Letterman, Penn seemed to be drinking the Kool-Aid quite heavily. What he says about Chavez’s efforts in Venezuela is nothing less than an old MVR press release. The most egregious, erroneous tidbit he offers up is that RCTV, the TV station shut down by Chavez due to its political leanings, had been “encouraging assassination every day since 1998.” Incredibly, stupidly wrong on all accounts.

Penn was back in Venezuela this weekend, allowing himself to be driven around, out on display for all to see. Chavez's pet, prize, Oscar-winning gringo actor, together to celebrate the glory of the revolution and thumb their noses back north at the horrible empire. I haven't heard if Penn is backing Obama for President, but if he is, I wonder what his justification for visiting Chavez will be once Obama takes office? There will be no more Bush to use as an excuse, as if having a crappy president were really an excuse to visit with quasi-dictators who have eschewed all democratic ideals, destroyed political institutions and squandered oil revenues... (uh oh, this is starting to sound like a rant).

So, it saddens me to see actors who I had genuine respect for behave so irresponsibly. I suppose Jane Fonda was criticized for similar antics during Vietnam, but she was actually protesting a war. What is Penn trying to prove? Does he really believe that Chavez has helped the poor in Venezuela? Has he done the research, looked at the numbers to see that on aggregate, the poor are exponentially worse off than they were 10 years ago? If you happen to run into him, please ask him for me...

Photo: Cooperativa.cl

Around the Hemisphere

If I was undecided yesterday (which I really wasn't), then today I am decidedly certain...the real question is, why is this man smiling?

• With elections not looking favorable, Chavez looks to distract the electorate with more threat generation. This quote from a former Venezuelan ambassador to the UN is one of the best encapsulations of Chavez’s tactics that I have seen: "President Chávez has used his anti-Americanism as a form of government policy, not only internationally but also when faced with a series of errors that he cannot explain." Hell, he hates us so much he even goes after McDonalds…
  

• Argentina places restrictions on imports from Brazil and China. Is there lead in the empanadas?
  

• Jose Miguel Vivanco, the HRW official expelled from Venezuela by Chavez last month, tells his version of the story, as linked to by Daniel at VZ News and Views.

• Meanwhile, HRW goes after Uribe in Colombia for interfering with the judicial process by trying to lean on judges for investigating links between members of his government and paramilitaries.
  

• U.S. consulate in Monterrey, Mexico attacked.
  

• Carlos Menem is being investigated for arms trafficking, supposedly selling weapons to Ecuador and Croatia in the 1990s.
  

• The Cocaine Diaries is a BBC series featuring Alex James of Blur traveling around Colombia looking into how the cocaine business works. I haven’t had a chance to see any of the series, but it comes highly recommended. I’m hoping it will re-run on BBC America at some point. If anyone knows of alternative means of viewing, by all means share…
  

• Serious environmental disaster in Bolivia, as the heavily polluted Choqueyapo River poisons agriculture and drinking water

Photo: Foto-cualquiera.com

I Guess I'm Undecided (?)

On a strictly personal note, I was interviewed on the news today. Nothing about Latin America, unfortunately. Local news rarely digs that deeply...

The real action starts around 1:25 in:

Who is the Least Popular President in the Americas? Not Bush...

The Colombian think tank CIMA has released its annual poll on governance and related issues. The results are culled from interviews done all over Latin America, the U.S. as well as Spain and Portugal, and assess various issues of importance to the region. Specifically, the group did 12,401 interviews in virtually every country in the Western Hemisphere, plus Iberia, and the results are pretty interesting.

Some of the highlights:

• In 11 out of 22 countries, the respective leaders had more than a 50% approval rating. The highest was Alvaro Uribe in Colombia with 85%. Bush, with a rock solid 21% approval, was surprisingly not the lowest. That honor went to now ex-President Nicanor Duarte of Paraguay, with an impressive 9%. Other notables: Chavez with 54%, Lula with 67%, Ortega with 29%.
  

• Overall in the region, the three main problems identified were lack of security, unemployment, and corruption. Complaints about the economy tended to vary depending on the respective conditions in each country. Only 3% of Venezuelans considered the economy a major problem, while 50% of U.S. Hispanics felt the same way.
  

• One strange question was asked about all the leaders in the region. On a scale of 0 to 100, how much do you sympathize with any given leader? For Hugo Chavez, 58% of Venezuelans sympathized with him, while only 10% in Spain felt the same way. Overall in the region, Chavez had a 26% rate of sympathy. When asked about Bush, 46% of U.S. Hispanics sympathized with him, while 56% of Colombians did the same. This stat is clearly not approval rating, so I’m not really sure what to make of that question.
  

I think overall these numbers should be looked at with a very critical eye. It appears the wording of this poll may have skewed some of the results, and allows one to read the numbers in ways to fit certain political views. For example, El Universal in Venezuela, which is not exactly pro-Chavez, gleaned from these statistics that Chavez was the “most unpopular” leader in the region. But he doesn’t have the lowest approval ratings? In any case, the report is a good read…

Around the Hemisphere - Columbus Day Edition

In honor of colonialism, genocide, and pure plundering, I bring you today's bullets in the name of Cristobal Colon...

• Interesting short clip showing how coca is turned into cocaine by small farmers in the Colombian jungle. I wonder if the blow is organic?
  

• More talk of “magnicide” : Chavez crying foul more than a month before the elections take place on November 23. It seems like Manuel Rosales can still get under Hugo's skin, even after he "lost" the last presidential election. Chavez paraphrased:

  If the opposition wins the municipal and regional elections in Zulia, the region will become the epicenter of assassination and coup d'etat plans hatched in the United States.

  Didn't I say he was a broken record?
  

• Meth producers look to Argentina to procure needed the much sought after ephedrine.
  

• Regional lending institutions IADB, FLAR (Fondo Latinoamerica de Reservas) and CAF (Corporación Andina de Fomento ) put together their own $9.3 billion plan for Latin America. Brazil chips in even more to help its own domestic banks.
  

• Political upheaval in Peru, as Garcia accepts the resignation of his entire cabinet, then appoints a leftist as his Prime Minister.
  

• Obama slams Chavez. Doesn’t sound like he is ready to sit down and negotiate with everyone now, does it? Chavez has made it clear that whoever wins the U.S. election, it won’t change his anti-imperialist position one bit. Will a Democrat in office signal a return to civility of U.S.-Venezuelan relations? Don't count on it...
  

• The World Cup warm-up between the U.S. and Cuba in D.C. produced two expected results: the Americans won handily, 6-1, and two Cuban players defected. Gustavo Coronel gives us a healthy dose of sarcasm in welcoming them to America.

Photo: Indybay.org

Should the U.S. Give Up on Latin America?

The Monroe Doctrine (1823) basically asserts U.S. hegemony in the Americas, but stipulates no colonization and no intervention. Depending on whom you talk to, there are those who believe that the U.S. has violated both these stipulations on numerous occasions, both directly and indirectly.

One opinion asserts that the U.S. should abandon Monroe completely, given the changes in the Latin American political landscape in the last decade, the increasing influence of countries like China in the region, and general U.S. disinterest in the region in a post-9/11 world. From a personal standpoint, I highly disagree with many of the points made in this article, but I find it a fascinating read regardless...

Around the Hemisphere

"Ahhh...te bañaste..."

• Is it possible to be in the CIA and FBI at the same time? According to Venezuelan Minister of the Interior, Tarek Al Aissami, it is. The Excrement elaborates. Just goes to show you, never trust anyone named Tarek (q)…?
  

• Chavez the Economist: The foundations of capitalism are being shaken and it’s the fault of American imperialism, neocolonialism, and Lauren sleeping with Audrina’s boyfriend.
  

• In Nicaragua, Ortega seems to be pushing socialist reform forward slowly but surely. It appears he wants to be able to negotiate the price of public land for private use at a rate different than that of the free market. Specifically, he proposed to : “negociar los terrenos a precio catastral y no a precio del libre mercado”. I’m unclear what exactly “precio catastral” means in English (if someone who knows the nuances of financial Spanish better than me, I would welcome any input), but it has something to do with the value of a piece of land before speculators drive up the price. What I can glean from this is the following: Ortega has plans to undertake massive public works projects in the future, most likely with Venezuelan and possibly Iranian funds. In order to move these projects forward, the government will need to acquire large tracts of private property through some sort of eminent domain purchase. Instead of paying market rate for the confiscated land, Ortega would like at least a 20% discount on what the ‘speculated value’ is. Well, at least Ortega is actually offering to pay something for the land, unlike Chavez who just seized large fincas in Venezuela for “Bolivarian Revolution” and allowed squatters to come in and destroy the land…

• Does the American lifestyle promote obesity? Compelling evidence that merely living near the border will make you fat.
  

• National museum dedicated to “o jogo bonito” now open in São Paulo.
  

• Alfonso Portillo, ex-Guatemalan president, extradited back home from Mexico to face corruption charges.
  

• Talks on a Free Trade Agreement re-open between the European Union and Colombia/Peru. Considering the previous iteration of this deal was with all four CAN (Comunidad Andina de Naciones) members, it looks like Bolivia and Ecuador aren’t feeling the free-ness.

Brazilian Erotic Sexual Poetry

I ran across this today in the Brazilian news:

Professor é demitido por escrever poemas eróticos

Um professor de literatura foi demitido da escola Parque, na zona sul do Rio de Janeiro, após os pais de seus alunos terem descoberto que ele era autor de poemas eróticos divulgados na Internet. Após uma palestra sobre a sua carreira feita no colégio, os alunos descobriram os poemas de Oswaldo Martins Teixeira na Internet. Teixeira disse que "jamais mostrou os poemas em sala de aula". Os alunos mostraram os poemas aos pais, que exigiram a demissão imediata do professor. O professor disse que não houve nem conversa, apenas foi informado da demissão.

Professor Fired for Writing Erotic Poems

“A literature teacher at Parque school in the southern region of Rio de Janeiro was fired after the parents of some of his students discovered that he was the author of erotic poems found on the Internet. After he had given a presentation about his writing career at the school, students discovered the poems of Oswaldo Martins Teixeira on the Internet. Teixeira claimed he ‘never showed the poems in the classroom.’ The students showed the poems to their parents, who demanded the immediate firing of the teacher. The teacher said he wasn’t even talked to [by the school] before he was fired…”

Slightly different accounts of the firing have popped up on various news sites. One account claims he assigned his 14-15 year old students to read the novel The Girl Who Played Go, which supposedly has some sexual content (I haven’t read it so I can’t really say one way or another). This assignment drew complaints from a few parents, and he was asked by the school to remove the book from the curriculum, which he apparently did. After this incident, some of his more curious students apparently looked him up on the internet, found the “erotic poems” and distributed them to all their friends (which I probably would have done had I discovered something like this when I was that age). The poems inevitably found their way into the hands of parents, who put pressure on the school to can the teacher. So, while the details may be slightly murky, the basic idea is the same in all the accounts: a teacher fired for something he did in his private life that was unrelated to his teachings at the school. Apparently this is not considered a violation of civil rights in Brazil, although I’m not sure if this case will play out in the courts as it certainly would have if it had occurred in the U.S.

A decade ago, if you had presented me with this scenario and asked me if it could happen in the U.S., I would have said absolutely not, we are a free country and as long as you aren’t spoon feeding age-inappropriate material to adolescents, then what you do in your private life by all means should not impact your job.

Today, however, after eight years of an evangelical presidency and the Sarah Palins of the world trying to ban books from libraries, I am no longer sure. Somehow, I feel less certain that what one does in one’s private life will stay there and not bleed into one’s professional career. Sadly, we have to be careful about how we live our lives, because there are those out there who do care about what happens behind closed doors, and will not hesitate to throw those doors wide open if they feel their own values or morals are being impinged upon.

Lest we forget that a country like Brazil, despite its reputation for scantily-clad women and orgiastic carnivals (name one other country where a stereotype is so perpetuated in modern society…), is still overwhelmingly Catholic, like most other Latin American countries. In many countries across the region, there is still a certain puritanical aspect to public life. Pornography is less prevalent in public, and there isn’t nearly as much nudity on television as you would see in someplace like France, Germany or Italy. Perhaps this moral ambiguity is one reason that a case like Oswaldo Teixeira’s doesn’t raise as many eyebrows as it would in North America or Europe. I am interested to see what happens with this case, whether Teixeira has any chance to appeal this, and if there is any significant public outcry. The fact that it made national news is significant I guess. At least people are talking about it...

Photo: Wilson Almanac

Around the Hemisphere

What a weekend it was in the Western Hemisphere. Not only is the United States firmly in the grip of election fever and a faltering economy, elsewhere around the region crises are being resolved, deals negotiated, bribes paid, political figures brought down by their own greed, and rampant European sex tourism...
But what was really important was that the Detroit Shock won the 2008 WNBA Championship! Let's keep things in perspective here, people...

• Iran, Russia, China and Venezuela create their “own financial system”?

• Brazil forced to stop trading as stock market plummets.
  

• Talks aimed at resolving crisis in Bolivia going nowhere for the moment.
  

• Peruvian Minister of Energy and Mining resigns in light of a bribery scandal involving hydrocarbon concessions awarded to a Norwegian energy company, Discover Petroleum.
  

• Latin America, prime destination for pedophiles?
  

• Chavez, the environmentalist.
  

• Calderon proposes decriminalization of certain drugs in Mexico. Could it help ease the violence?
  

Photo: Detroit Free Press

Around the Hemisphere

• Good article on Brazil’s emergence as a global economic power.
  

• Caracas lands at the top of FP’s list of Murder Capitals of the World.
  

• More on the impact of the financial crisis in Latin America
  

• More FARC members land on the Treasury Department’s "Lista Clinton":
  

• The failure of Chavismo to provide even basic services to Venezuela’s sprawling slums, as regularly documented by Radar de los Barrios: “If you don’t pay for the tank…there won’t be water. After ten years of discussions about ‘socialism’, water has become ‘privatized’ in the most perverse way. As such, the only thing the “revolution” has efficiently distributed is thirst…”
  

• Perhaps in response to Venezuela’s recent shopping spree on Russian weaponry, a comparison of Brazil and Venezuela’s military defense capabilities. The author makes a case for strengthening Brazil’s air-land defense capacity (just in case Paraguay wants to invade I guess?)
  

• Speaking of Paraguay, the nation’s equivalent of Paris-Dakar is the Transchaco Rally. According to Wikipedia (I seem to hear those three words a lot lately…as if it makes Wikipedia any more reliable) rally racing is Paraguay’s second most popular sport after fútbol. Unfortunately, the race has been postponed this year due to a sustained drought in the region. In the meantime, dozens of owners of souped-up 1983 Subaru DLs sit waiting to kick some ass…
  

• Colonialism as the primary cause of the current crisis in Bolivia; exploring historical roots, looking at the crisis from a regional standpoint, with the obligatory “U.S. is behind it all” scenario thrown in for good measure.
  

• In the Antonini Maletagate case, one witness confirms that the money came from the Venezuelan government.
  

Latin American Reaction to U.S. Financial Crisis

The fact that our financial woes in this country will impact the entire globe is undeniable, but many Latin American nations may be feeling particularly nervous. The U.S. is the largest trading partner for the vast majority of these countries, so already shaky economies may be even more vulnerable if recession hits hard here.

A brief roundup of reactions from the region:

Nicaragua

Mexico

Colombia

Venezuela

Brazil

Argentina

Chile

The Chavez contingent decides to say "I told you so."

Good macro-level take from the Washington Post.

Grandpa's Startin' to Tell Stories Again...

When Chávez takes his anti-imperialist show on the road, it becomes increasingly clear that his global “strategic partners” are less interested in his ideology than in all the money he can potentially throw their way.

Hugo’s most recent road trip took him to Cuba, China, Russia, France and Portugal, as he looked to secure bigger and better energy and military partnerships. Not content to just sign economic deals, it appeared Chávez was looking for some ideological commiseration as well from some of the United States’ more notorious global acquaintances. Unfortunately for him, there was little to find.

In China, Chávez heaped praise upon the Chinese government while taking his usual shots at the U.S.:

“China is demonstrating to the world that they don’t need to hurt anyone in order to become a major power. They are soldiers of peace.”

Chávez also pandered to the communist sensibilities of the Chinese, saying how blessed he was to be in the presence of “Mao’s heirs” and “in the land of Mao”. He then went on to declare that he himself was a Maoist (yo soy maoista). Not to split hairs, but at this point in their history, it seems China takes more pride in emphasizing the current success of their capitalist economy than their revolutionary past. And while I’m no expert, I’m not sure how many Chinese today readily identify themselves as Maoists. This is just another prime example of Chávez’s loquacious bullshit that is meant to charm a foreign audience, but more often than not falls on deaf ears. A few years back, on a visit to the Middle East, Chávez proclaimed his strong admiration for Nasser in Egypt, and also produced this gem:

“My heart is with the millions of Arab people. Sometimes I feel that I am Arab myself…. I have crossed deserts, ridden camels, and sung with the Bedouins. I learned during these experiences to love and respect the Arabs, who have a place in my heart.”

While the image of Chávez riding a camel and singing with Bedouins makes me smirk a bit, I highly doubt he knows who the hell Nasser even was or what Bedouins are. Unlike some of the Arab nations, who perhaps felt they had found a Latino soulmate after Chavez denounced Israel and recalled the Venezuelan ambassador, it seems the Chinese will not bite and play into Huguito’s little war of words. After Chávez gave a typical anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist rant in Beijing, the official response from the government was, “China and Venezuela maintain normal state-to-state relations. They are not based on ideology, nor are they directed against any third party and will not affect other countries.” They also made sure to emphasize that there would be no Chinese-Venezuelan military cooperation. Even Putin made sure to release a statement to reassure that his meeting with Chávez did not mean he had “ideological differences with U.S.”

So, it seems that everyone will tolerate a certain level of grandstanding and bellicose posturing as long as they get a cut of the oil bonanza. If Chávez spent this much effort dedicated to solving domestic issues, perhaps he wouldn’t need to spend 25% of his time traveling abroad to get away from it all.
(Photo from AP)

Around the Hemisphere

• Ecuador ratifies a new constitution with a 64% “Yes” vote. Some of the immediate impacts: 1)tightens presidential control over banking, energy and telecom industries 2)Correa now has direct control over central bank, can set interest rates 3)allows for a second, four-year presidential term. Given Correa’s wild popularity in Ecuador (around a 70% approval rating), winning re-election seems a foregone conclusion. Now let’s see if he starts to consolidate power even more, as Chavez did when he first pushed through his constitutional rewrites in 1999.
  

• The cartel violence rages on in Mexico as sixteen bodies are found in Tijuana, murdered execution-style.
  

• With the uptick in hurricane action these last few years or so, stories of devastation seem to blend into one another. Katrina, Ike, Rita, etc… What we rarely see, however, is how all these hurricanes hit other, much poorer nations than our own. Ike did some massive damage in Cuba, as evidenced in these photographs.
  

• U.S. financial crisis impacts markets in Buenos Aires and São Paulo
  

• Does Obama’s “Change” message remind Venezuelan-American voters a little too much of Chavez?
  

• A statue dedicated to recently deceased FARC leader Manuel (Tirofijo) Marulanda Vélez was erected in Caracas. Gustavo Coronel characterizes it as “a new affront to the decent and democratic people of America”.
  

• Statistics like this always make me sad. In August alone, the Amazon lost another 756 square kilometers of acreage, an area roughly half the size of the city of São Paulo.
  

Magnicide?

Not a real word, I know. At least not in English...

magnicidio

m. Asesinato de una persona muy importante por su cargo o poder:
"magnicidio de un presidente."

In Spanish, however, it sounds cool (at least to me). It sounds important. It sounds regal. It sounds serious. Like deicide, or regicide. Killing someone important or kingly or god-like. Perhaps it is the nature of the language to dramatize certain acts with words of that magnitude. Hell, maybe we used "magnicide" in the English language at some point to describe assassination, but I certainly found no evidence (at least in a 2 minute Google search!) that anyone uses it today.

There is one person that likes to use it...a lot. His name is Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias and he is the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. And he thinks people are constantly trying to commit magnicide on him.

Yesterday was the latest in a long list of government accusations/announcements of having foiled assassination attempts. Police in Zulia state confiscated 4 Carl-Gustav 84mm anti-tank grenade launchers that were ostensibly going to blow up Huguito's plane/car/tank/dirigible...

Maybe it was a legit plot uncovered. Maybe it wasn't. In any case, here is a sampling of instances where Chavez has accused just the United States of trying to kill him:

• June 4, 2005 - Then vice-president Jose Vicente Rangel claims that the Bush administration wants Chavez dead and lays blame for his "eventual" assassination saying that Bush will ultimately probably succeed. What an optimist, eh?
  

• October 17, 2003 - Chavez cancels plans to visit the UN, claims he has personally uncovered an assassination attempt against him in New York
  

• February 23, 2005 - Chavez denounces CIA plans to kill him on his TV program Alo Presidente
  

• Uses supposed CIA assassination plot as part of excuse to close down RCTV in early 2007
  

• September 2006 - puts forth vague conspiracy that Chavez's speech at the UN calling Bush the devil would spur some Israeli-planned assassination that Bush has already signed off on
  

• September 13, 2008 - Chavez expels US Ambassador Patrick Duddy, claims he is behind plan to overthrow and murder him.

It is doubtful anyone really takes him seriously anymore, even among the hardcore chavistas. But who knows, maybe someday we will hear stories about plans to kill Chavez just like the stories about the CIA trying to give Castro exploding cigars or sending him hookers with syphilis...

Around the Hemisphere

• The Ecuadorian government takes over operations of Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht, preventing its top executives from leaving the country. This leads up to a weekend referendum on a new constitution that would consolidate presidential power in the hands of Rafael Correa and quasi-nationalize the country’s oil industry. Hmmm….where have I heard this story before?
  

• Morales at the UN: Conspiracy theories abound; the diplomatic crisis doesn't seem to be improving, as recently expelled US Ambassador Philip Goldberg gets the brunt of the blame for current turmoil in the country.
  

• The Cuban national team will play the U.S. in DC in a World Cup qualifier for South Africa 2010. Could it be the first step towards normalizing relations? Maybe if they let us win...
  

• Chavez is in Beijing, looking to beef up bilateral agreements in telecommunications and food production. Just don’t drink the milk, pana.
  He also envisions sending a million barrels of oil a day to China within five years. Not unless he can magically widen the Panama Canal he won’t…
  
  
• The Excrement continues to track the trial of Guido Antonini in Miami, in the latest news on Maletagate. For those unfamiliar with the basic details, the trial stems from a suitcase filled with $800k confiscated at customs in Buenos Aires. Antonini was apparently bringing a campaign contribution from Chavez to Cristina Kirchner…the whole crazy mess is well documented in the archives on this site.
  

• The drug trade increasingly dominates politics in Mexico.
  Not to diminish the threat from more high-profile extremist groups, but this could be the hemisphere’s most urgent security issue at the moment. It looks more and more like Mexico will not be able to handle the growing cartel violence by itself. The U.S. may want to start paying closer attention…
  

• According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, Brazil brought in over $35 billion in FDI last year. That makes it the fifth most attractive country in the world to invest in, and the best in Latin America. If we took a poll today, where would the U.S. rank on that list? On second thought, maybe we shouldn’t even try and answer that.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

The Not-So-Mighty Dollar

Although this happened two weeks ago, I thought it may be important to address it here. Brazil and Argentina have decided to stop trading in dollars and instead conduct bilateral trade in reais and pesos.

So, is this further proof that the dollar is weakening and the U.S. economy is going into the crapper? Does it signify loss of financial clout for the U.S. in the Southern Cone? What does it all mean? To answer these questions, I have asked for the expert advice of our friend EW, who knows much more about these concepts than I ever will:

The short of it that I’d anticipate an increase transaction costs from the transition, as both currencies will still need to be priced against one another, and the basis for doing that will in all likelihood continue to be their relative prices against the dollar. The commodities (especially) and manufactures produced by the two countries are priced in world markets in dollars, so they will need to re-price everything in terms of one currency or the other. They’ll also have to agree which currency, the real or the peso, in which to conduct trade. Additionally the banks will still need to exchange for dollars in order to conduct trade with all other countries, so whichever currency is decided upon will still often be exchanged for dollars in order to conduct trade with all countries that are not Brazil/Argentina. Though I’m no expert, I don’t see Brazilian banks sitting on large sums of Argentine pesos, or vice-versa. In sum, I personally do not believe that this move would facilitate and increase bilateral trade flows between the two countries (as was suggested by Lula). The move will probably inhibit both bilateral trade by increasing the cost of doing business, probably lead to political disagreements over which currency is a the base currency, and will have no (or a slightly negative) effect on trade with the rest of the world, which will continue to be conducted in dollars.

Essentially, it sounds like it's much ado about nothing...perhaps a symbolic move from two nations eager to prove they are free from the financial yoke of the U.S. and its influences. As for if this signals a global shift away from the dollar to the euro or whatever, it remains to be seen.

This doesn't change the fact that traveling abroad with dollars right now cannot be too much fun.

Around the Hemisphere

• Jamestown article reassessing Islamic terrorism in Latin America: I won't say this article offers up recycled, rehashed theories about...oh hell, I guess I just did

• Venezuela’s Support For Palestine: A Model For Third World Diplomacy - Probably not too many people out there who would consider Chavez's diplomatic skills as a model for anything...

• “USAID, arma clave de la guerra sucia contra América Latina” ;
One opinion that finds American aid offers to Cuba following Hurricanes Ike and Gustav particularly nefarious…

• Daniel at VZ News and Views provides some compelling visual evidence that Chavez’s vaunted social programs have done little to alleviate poverty in Venezuela. I couldn’t imagine a worse fate than to fall into the Guaire river (and I use the term “river” very loosely here. It makes the Ganges look like an unspoiled Artesian spring).

• While many are suspicious of USAID’s efforts in Latin America, there are others who are bending over backwards to justify Chavez’s expulsion of the director of Human Rights Watch Venezuela last week. While the underlying premise is the same (both are imperialist tools aimed at forcing American policy down the throats of smaller countries, blahblahblah), this editorial tries to document the many ways in which HRW has been tied to Washington over the years.

• Documenting the arrival of Russian warplanes in Venezuela (in Portuguese); on a similar note, Russian nuclear warship “Peter the Great” (or Pedro el Grande as some like to call it down south) is on its way to the Caribbean.

• New report by the always thorough Douglas Farah, chronicling FARC links to a whole host of international players, including Ortega and Qaddafi. The report dissects details from the treasure trove of documents found on a FARC laptop when a Colombian military raid killed second-in-command Raul Reyes last spring. Farah also interviewed plenty of figures close to the case, making this report the best yet on what was uncovered (links to a Pdf file).

Ready for Re-launch

While my initial attempt(s) to become a "serious" blogger have failed, I have by no means given up the quest to become a self-publishing guru...well, perhaps that is a bit too ambitious. 

As the U.S. looks to transition into a new era of politics and (hopefully) reshape its foreign policy focus more broadly throughout the world, it is the hope of those of us dedicated to following Latin America that the American government makes good on the long overdue promise of renewed and strengthened relations here in the Western Hemisphere. What this may bring is unclear; hopefully it means more than just trying to show the Chavez' of the world who has the biggest balls in the locker room. A perfect scenario would probably include renewed economic talks, expanded trade within the region, and strategic partnerships that have broader goals than just fighting the drug trade and securing energy sources. 

So, my intent will be to track trends, discuss key events, debate the finer points of policy and all other things Latin American. Hopefully I won't be doing this alone; in any case, my renewed commitment to the site is strong for now, and I'll make every effort not to fall back on old habits, lose focus and let things peter off once more.