Grandpa's Startin' to Tell Stories Again...

When Chávez takes his anti-imperialist show on the road, it becomes increasingly clear that his global “strategic partners” are less interested in his ideology than in all the money he can potentially throw their way.

Hugo’s most recent road trip took him to Cuba, China, Russia, France and Portugal, as he looked to secure bigger and better energy and military partnerships. Not content to just sign economic deals, it appeared Chávez was looking for some ideological commiseration as well from some of the United States’ more notorious global acquaintances. Unfortunately for him, there was little to find.

In China, Chávez heaped praise upon the Chinese government while taking his usual shots at the U.S.:

“China is demonstrating to the world that they don’t need to hurt anyone in order to become a major power. They are soldiers of peace.”

Chávez also pandered to the communist sensibilities of the Chinese, saying how blessed he was to be in the presence of “Mao’s heirs” and “in the land of Mao”. He then went on to declare that he himself was a Maoist (yo soy maoista). Not to split hairs, but at this point in their history, it seems China takes more pride in emphasizing the current success of their capitalist economy than their revolutionary past. And while I’m no expert, I’m not sure how many Chinese today readily identify themselves as Maoists. This is just another prime example of Chávez’s loquacious bullshit that is meant to charm a foreign audience, but more often than not falls on deaf ears. A few years back, on a visit to the Middle East, Chávez proclaimed his strong admiration for Nasser in Egypt, and also produced this gem:

“My heart is with the millions of Arab people. Sometimes I feel that I am Arab myself…. I have crossed deserts, ridden camels, and sung with the Bedouins. I learned during these experiences to love and respect the Arabs, who have a place in my heart.”

While the image of Chávez riding a camel and singing with Bedouins makes me smirk a bit, I highly doubt he knows who the hell Nasser even was or what Bedouins are. Unlike some of the Arab nations, who perhaps felt they had found a Latino soulmate after Chavez denounced Israel and recalled the Venezuelan ambassador, it seems the Chinese will not bite and play into Huguito’s little war of words. After Chávez gave a typical anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist rant in Beijing, the official response from the government was, “China and Venezuela maintain normal state-to-state relations. They are not based on ideology, nor are they directed against any third party and will not affect other countries.” They also made sure to emphasize that there would be no Chinese-Venezuelan military cooperation. Even Putin made sure to release a statement to reassure that his meeting with Chávez did not mean he had “ideological differences with U.S.”

So, it seems that everyone will tolerate a certain level of grandstanding and bellicose posturing as long as they get a cut of the oil bonanza. If Chávez spent this much effort dedicated to solving domestic issues, perhaps he wouldn’t need to spend 25% of his time traveling abroad to get away from it all.
(Photo from AP)

Around the Hemisphere

• Ecuador ratifies a new constitution with a 64% “Yes” vote. Some of the immediate impacts: 1)tightens presidential control over banking, energy and telecom industries 2)Correa now has direct control over central bank, can set interest rates 3)allows for a second, four-year presidential term. Given Correa’s wild popularity in Ecuador (around a 70% approval rating), winning re-election seems a foregone conclusion. Now let’s see if he starts to consolidate power even more, as Chavez did when he first pushed through his constitutional rewrites in 1999.
  

• The cartel violence rages on in Mexico as sixteen bodies are found in Tijuana, murdered execution-style.
  

• With the uptick in hurricane action these last few years or so, stories of devastation seem to blend into one another. Katrina, Ike, Rita, etc… What we rarely see, however, is how all these hurricanes hit other, much poorer nations than our own. Ike did some massive damage in Cuba, as evidenced in these photographs.
  

• U.S. financial crisis impacts markets in Buenos Aires and São Paulo
  

• Does Obama’s “Change” message remind Venezuelan-American voters a little too much of Chavez?
  

• A statue dedicated to recently deceased FARC leader Manuel (Tirofijo) Marulanda Vélez was erected in Caracas. Gustavo Coronel characterizes it as “a new affront to the decent and democratic people of America”.
  

• Statistics like this always make me sad. In August alone, the Amazon lost another 756 square kilometers of acreage, an area roughly half the size of the city of São Paulo.
  

Magnicide?

Not a real word, I know. At least not in English...

magnicidio

m. Asesinato de una persona muy importante por su cargo o poder:
"magnicidio de un presidente."

In Spanish, however, it sounds cool (at least to me). It sounds important. It sounds regal. It sounds serious. Like deicide, or regicide. Killing someone important or kingly or god-like. Perhaps it is the nature of the language to dramatize certain acts with words of that magnitude. Hell, maybe we used "magnicide" in the English language at some point to describe assassination, but I certainly found no evidence (at least in a 2 minute Google search!) that anyone uses it today.

There is one person that likes to use it...a lot. His name is Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias and he is the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. And he thinks people are constantly trying to commit magnicide on him.

Yesterday was the latest in a long list of government accusations/announcements of having foiled assassination attempts. Police in Zulia state confiscated 4 Carl-Gustav 84mm anti-tank grenade launchers that were ostensibly going to blow up Huguito's plane/car/tank/dirigible...

Maybe it was a legit plot uncovered. Maybe it wasn't. In any case, here is a sampling of instances where Chavez has accused just the United States of trying to kill him:

• June 4, 2005 - Then vice-president Jose Vicente Rangel claims that the Bush administration wants Chavez dead and lays blame for his "eventual" assassination saying that Bush will ultimately probably succeed. What an optimist, eh?
  

• October 17, 2003 - Chavez cancels plans to visit the UN, claims he has personally uncovered an assassination attempt against him in New York
  

• February 23, 2005 - Chavez denounces CIA plans to kill him on his TV program Alo Presidente
  

• Uses supposed CIA assassination plot as part of excuse to close down RCTV in early 2007
  

• September 2006 - puts forth vague conspiracy that Chavez's speech at the UN calling Bush the devil would spur some Israeli-planned assassination that Bush has already signed off on
  

• September 13, 2008 - Chavez expels US Ambassador Patrick Duddy, claims he is behind plan to overthrow and murder him.

It is doubtful anyone really takes him seriously anymore, even among the hardcore chavistas. But who knows, maybe someday we will hear stories about plans to kill Chavez just like the stories about the CIA trying to give Castro exploding cigars or sending him hookers with syphilis...

Around the Hemisphere

• The Ecuadorian government takes over operations of Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht, preventing its top executives from leaving the country. This leads up to a weekend referendum on a new constitution that would consolidate presidential power in the hands of Rafael Correa and quasi-nationalize the country’s oil industry. Hmmm….where have I heard this story before?
  

• Morales at the UN: Conspiracy theories abound; the diplomatic crisis doesn't seem to be improving, as recently expelled US Ambassador Philip Goldberg gets the brunt of the blame for current turmoil in the country.
  

• The Cuban national team will play the U.S. in DC in a World Cup qualifier for South Africa 2010. Could it be the first step towards normalizing relations? Maybe if they let us win...
  

• Chavez is in Beijing, looking to beef up bilateral agreements in telecommunications and food production. Just don’t drink the milk, pana.
  He also envisions sending a million barrels of oil a day to China within five years. Not unless he can magically widen the Panama Canal he won’t…
  
  
• The Excrement continues to track the trial of Guido Antonini in Miami, in the latest news on Maletagate. For those unfamiliar with the basic details, the trial stems from a suitcase filled with $800k confiscated at customs in Buenos Aires. Antonini was apparently bringing a campaign contribution from Chavez to Cristina Kirchner…the whole crazy mess is well documented in the archives on this site.
  

• The drug trade increasingly dominates politics in Mexico.
  Not to diminish the threat from more high-profile extremist groups, but this could be the hemisphere’s most urgent security issue at the moment. It looks more and more like Mexico will not be able to handle the growing cartel violence by itself. The U.S. may want to start paying closer attention…
  

• According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, Brazil brought in over $35 billion in FDI last year. That makes it the fifth most attractive country in the world to invest in, and the best in Latin America. If we took a poll today, where would the U.S. rank on that list? On second thought, maybe we shouldn’t even try and answer that.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

The Not-So-Mighty Dollar

Although this happened two weeks ago, I thought it may be important to address it here. Brazil and Argentina have decided to stop trading in dollars and instead conduct bilateral trade in reais and pesos.

So, is this further proof that the dollar is weakening and the U.S. economy is going into the crapper? Does it signify loss of financial clout for the U.S. in the Southern Cone? What does it all mean? To answer these questions, I have asked for the expert advice of our friend EW, who knows much more about these concepts than I ever will:

The short of it that I’d anticipate an increase transaction costs from the transition, as both currencies will still need to be priced against one another, and the basis for doing that will in all likelihood continue to be their relative prices against the dollar. The commodities (especially) and manufactures produced by the two countries are priced in world markets in dollars, so they will need to re-price everything in terms of one currency or the other. They’ll also have to agree which currency, the real or the peso, in which to conduct trade. Additionally the banks will still need to exchange for dollars in order to conduct trade with all other countries, so whichever currency is decided upon will still often be exchanged for dollars in order to conduct trade with all countries that are not Brazil/Argentina. Though I’m no expert, I don’t see Brazilian banks sitting on large sums of Argentine pesos, or vice-versa. In sum, I personally do not believe that this move would facilitate and increase bilateral trade flows between the two countries (as was suggested by Lula). The move will probably inhibit both bilateral trade by increasing the cost of doing business, probably lead to political disagreements over which currency is a the base currency, and will have no (or a slightly negative) effect on trade with the rest of the world, which will continue to be conducted in dollars.

Essentially, it sounds like it's much ado about nothing...perhaps a symbolic move from two nations eager to prove they are free from the financial yoke of the U.S. and its influences. As for if this signals a global shift away from the dollar to the euro or whatever, it remains to be seen.

This doesn't change the fact that traveling abroad with dollars right now cannot be too much fun.

Around the Hemisphere

• Jamestown article reassessing Islamic terrorism in Latin America: I won't say this article offers up recycled, rehashed theories about...oh hell, I guess I just did

• Venezuela’s Support For Palestine: A Model For Third World Diplomacy - Probably not too many people out there who would consider Chavez's diplomatic skills as a model for anything...

• “USAID, arma clave de la guerra sucia contra América Latina” ;
One opinion that finds American aid offers to Cuba following Hurricanes Ike and Gustav particularly nefarious…

• Daniel at VZ News and Views provides some compelling visual evidence that Chavez’s vaunted social programs have done little to alleviate poverty in Venezuela. I couldn’t imagine a worse fate than to fall into the Guaire river (and I use the term “river” very loosely here. It makes the Ganges look like an unspoiled Artesian spring).

• While many are suspicious of USAID’s efforts in Latin America, there are others who are bending over backwards to justify Chavez’s expulsion of the director of Human Rights Watch Venezuela last week. While the underlying premise is the same (both are imperialist tools aimed at forcing American policy down the throats of smaller countries, blahblahblah), this editorial tries to document the many ways in which HRW has been tied to Washington over the years.

• Documenting the arrival of Russian warplanes in Venezuela (in Portuguese); on a similar note, Russian nuclear warship “Peter the Great” (or Pedro el Grande as some like to call it down south) is on its way to the Caribbean.

• New report by the always thorough Douglas Farah, chronicling FARC links to a whole host of international players, including Ortega and Qaddafi. The report dissects details from the treasure trove of documents found on a FARC laptop when a Colombian military raid killed second-in-command Raul Reyes last spring. Farah also interviewed plenty of figures close to the case, making this report the best yet on what was uncovered (links to a Pdf file).

Ready for Re-launch

While my initial attempt(s) to become a "serious" blogger have failed, I have by no means given up the quest to become a self-publishing guru...well, perhaps that is a bit too ambitious. 

As the U.S. looks to transition into a new era of politics and (hopefully) reshape its foreign policy focus more broadly throughout the world, it is the hope of those of us dedicated to following Latin America that the American government makes good on the long overdue promise of renewed and strengthened relations here in the Western Hemisphere. What this may bring is unclear; hopefully it means more than just trying to show the Chavez' of the world who has the biggest balls in the locker room. A perfect scenario would probably include renewed economic talks, expanded trade within the region, and strategic partnerships that have broader goals than just fighting the drug trade and securing energy sources. 

So, my intent will be to track trends, discuss key events, debate the finer points of policy and all other things Latin American. Hopefully I won't be doing this alone; in any case, my renewed commitment to the site is strong for now, and I'll make every effort not to fall back on old habits, lose focus and let things peter off once more.